Match Engine
Possession determines the number of "potential chances". Once a "potential chance" is assigned to a team, the skill of the chance creator (usually winger or midfielder), skill of the defender (when applicable) and skill of the player trying to receive the ball is then used to determine whether the pass gets to another player. Then, the skill of the receiving player (if he received the ball) and the skill of the defender (when applicable) is used to see if he manages to shoot. If I remember correctly from my experience, there is only one defender - a player will be challenged only once. If there is a shot, the quality of the finishing skill and the quality of the chance are used to check whether it is on target. If it's on target, the quality of shot and the quality of keeper are compared to check whether it's a goal.
The quality of the chance is based on his "getting into position" skills, like positioning, pace, strength, etc and also on the quality of the defensive effort that just occured as well as keeper position and the pressure he puts on the player.
In my opinion, positioning is key. Although there's no simple formula, as the "get into a good spot" skills are compared to defender skills.
Do not forget mentality, as it’s an important factor in how many shots are on goal.















